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Roto Group

13.12.2016

Roto Group remains “firmly on track” in 2016 as well

13.12.2016

Despite the, on balance, strong market- and currency-related headwinds, the Roto Group remains on track in 2016 as well. This is ultimately also reflected in forecast total sales of around 620 million euros, which is just below the level reported the previous year. For 2017, for the first time in years, the construction supplier does not expect any further market stresses below the line, rather an “overall” stabilization. Internal development is expected to be noticeably better with between 4 and 5% sales growth. During the 11th International Trade Press Day these were the chairman’s key messages used to describe the company’s status and prospects.

 

In his international building industry analysis, Dr Eckhard Keill saw more shadow than light. According to Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) information, the negative list is headed by Russia, emphasized the Roto CEO. The severe general economic crisis has also extended to construction. It is also suffering from the heavy fall in government construction expenditures, which amounted to 30% in both 2015 and 2016. In China, the entire building trade is essentially stagnating. In particular, housing construction, which accounts for two thirds of overall building construction, looks to be weakening. The government is, for example, looking to stimulate the renovation market sector to counteract this trend.

 

Latin America paints a very heterogeneous picture. The range extends from moderate market growth (Chile) to heavy falls (Argentina, Brazil). By far the best market information came from the USA. Here, the building industry continued its strong upturn in 2016. Specifically, the modernisation and repair sector are expanding rapidly, while growth in new builds was slower. In the coming years, positive forecasts are underpinned by issues such as population growth and the aging housing stock.

 

A moderate upward trend predominated in Europe. The research network Euroconstruct thus expects its 19 member countries’ average housing construction to grow by 3% (2016) and 2.5% (2017). In the current year, growth was primarily driven by new builds, which rose by just over 5.5%, albeit from a low base.

 

However, although the general conditions may be favourable overall, significant 2016/2017 period differences existed between individual countries. Housing construction’s lead group consists of Ireland, Hungary, Portugal and Spain. The midfield also includes Germany and Great Britain. However, the Brexit effects in the United Kingdom have not yet been “priced in”. Italy and Belgium bring up the rear.

 

Not satisfied with stabilization

Keill started his forecast for 2017 with “good news”. This is because, for the first time in years, Roto is, on balance, not expecting any further stresses. However, the development will remain patchy. Russia is expected to move sideways. The market depends heavily on the political development. We are therefore hoping for a de-escalation and better dialogue on both sides. An oil price rise is positive and therefore desirable for economic and currency development. China is expected to remain at its current level for the time being. Government housing construction support programmes could make a clear contribution to this situation. Latin America, including Brazil, is expected to have reached their nadir, with 2017 being a “year of consolidation”. The forecast for North America: continued upturn, albeit at a slower pace.

 

In Europe, Keill essentially expects a moderate rising trend. This specifically applies for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. The losers include Great Britain – and “probably significantly”. All in all, the window and door markets are expected to stabilize in 2017.